Zeitgeist Zephyr

A presidential panel announced yesterday that NASA’s space shuttle program will likely need to be extended beyond its retirement deadline this time next year in order to finish the space station and that the first Orion flight might be delayed a year longer.  This is a decision that is good for the space station and shuttle programs, but a bad one for the Constellation program.

NASA shouldn’t be rushed to finish the space station to meet an arbitrary deadline that was set in 2004.  While that would be nice, safety would be compromised at this point, with the likelihood that if NASA were to meet that deadline, 2010 could be one of their busiest years on record for launching humans into space.  After seeing the Challenger and Columbia accidents, this is perhaps the wisest decision they can make, since both accidents originated out of complacency and a drive to get things done fast rather than right.

On the other hand for Orion, that means our return to the Moon by 2020 will be jeopardized.  The more I look at the issue the more I realize that the current plan using an Ares I rocket and an Orion capsule is the wrong way to go.  NASA seriously needs to utilize private industry on this one.  The Falcon 9 rocket already exists, though it has yet to be tested, but already has a capsule designed to fit it, all that’s missing is the money to build one.  Furthermore, an Atlas V or Delta IV rocket could be modified to carry an Orion-like or Dragon-like capsule for far cheaper than reinventing a whole new launch system.   

That isn’t to say NASA should be out of the game completely.  Let them devote the bulk of their remaining resources to the Ares V rocket and Altair lander.  They would still be paying for the system, but they could get a rocket and spacecraft to the launchpad faster if they pursue a commercial route, all they need is permission from Congress and the President. 

If we want to make it to the Moon before 2020 and beat the Chinese there, private industry needs to play a larger role.  The big standard contractors like Boeing, Lockheed, and Northrop Grumman are going to keep doing things the same way if NASA doesn’t include the smaller start-ups like SpaceX in the game more than they already are.  The cost of spaceflight has actually gone up since the Apollo missions and it’s high time that changes. 

I would urge that one of the first things that NASA’s new administrator Charles Boldin do is change the way that NASA deals with contractors and move control of more standard missions to the space station to companies like SpaceX and retain control of riskier missions like those to the Moon and Mars. 

I just got done reading this fantastic interview on Space.com with X-PRIZE founder and Zero Gravity Corporation CEO Peter Diamandis.  It outlines perfectly in fewer words than I could use why the private sector is going to be so important in the coming decades in promoting and expanding space exploration, not just above the Earth but throughout the Solar System.  Even better is that it’s coming from someone who has probably had more influence in developing the private space industry than anyone else.

Here’s a brief excerpt:

Peter Diamandis: Key to Lunar Frontier in Private Hands
By Andrea Thompson
Senior Writer - Space.com
posted: 20 July 2009
07:15 am ET

Forty years after the first manned moon landing on July 20, 1969, SPACE.com asked Apollo astronauts and leaders of the space community to ponder the past, present and future. X Prize founder Peter Diamandis discusses the disconnect between the promise of Apollo and today’s reality, and looks ahead to the future of private lunar exploration with the Google Lunar X Prize:

SPACE.COM: Do you remember the Apollo 11 landing?

Peter Diamandis: I remember the Apollo program, but I think it was Apollo 13 that really galvanized my interest, and sort of the drama and the ultimate victory of human ingenuity. But the Apollo program ultimately shaped my life and everything I’ve done. It was the most important formative activity of my life in that it made me aware of the ability for humanity to do literally unimaginable feats.

And the difficulty is that for a child, it sort of created expectations that were extraordinary that have never been matched again….(READ MORE)

As the world commemorates the 40th anniversary of the Apollo 11 landing on the Moon, the United States is preparing to send humans back by 2020 through Project Constellation.  Moon walker Buzz Aldrin is now calling for a Mars shot by 2031, a proposal that I support and find reasonable.

The first reason that I support a 2031 Mars shot is that, unlike NASA’s current policy with regards to Project Constellation, this sets a time frame by which to aim for the Red Planet.  “Moon, Mars, and Beyond” is a nice catch phrase and slogan, but that’s currently NASA’s only official “timetable” for going to Mars, and that it will be sometime in the future after returning to the Moon.  Assigning a date over 10 years after we should have made a return to the Moon is a reasonable leap in technology, provided the flow of funding remains steady or is even increased for NASA.

I fully believe that Earth’s future is directly tied to the Moon and how we choose to exploit its resources for terrestrial use, but Mars is integral to humanity’s future, and as society is faced with ever greater dangers having a “Plan B” will be crucial.  Not to mention that the more we explore Mars the more it has been found to have had a wetter history, perhaps not unlike the Earth’s early history, providing key clues to the evolution of planets and potentially life in the universe.

Not interested in making a direct jump from the Moon to Mars?  There are intermediary steps, and NASA shouldn’t get caught up in the order of their timetable slogan.  It may in fact be more practical, not to mention more logical, to send astronauts to a near earth asteroid beyond the orbit of the Moon to test deep space technologies and techniques.  While NASA is planning on keeping astronauts on the Moon for up to 6 months at a time, it pales in comparison to the 24 month mission to Mars.  An 8 or 10 month mission to a near Earth asteroid would not only test out key technology but would train astronauts and ground control in the psychology of deep space flight, which is not likely to be anywhere near as cheery as Star Trek.

2031 doesn’t have to be the set date, but NASA needs one.  It would also be prudent to investigate a mission to a near Earth asteroid, there are plenty of targets to choose from!