Zeitgeist Zephyr

What a year 2009 was for space exploration!  Even better yet, 2010 aims to be a year of achievement and reflection that will rival years past and years to come in spaceflight.  2010 will truly mark a turning point in space exploration.

Augustine Commission and Obama Space Policy

Unless an announcement is made later this year, it is entirely likely that early 2010 will see the creation of a new space policy for the United States following President Obama’s announcement of his official plans for NASA in the wake of the Augustine Commission.  That future is still unknown, but the options could range from extending the shuttle program through the time Orion is available with a flight a year, all the way to scrapping the Orion capsule and Ares I booster entirely in favor of a commercial alternative.  It is simply too early to know what President Obama will decide.  His nievety of the space program makes it difficult to predict the outcome, and it will be a game of wait and see until then.

Space Shuttle Program Ends

As was outlined by President Bush in his 2004 ‘Vision for Space Exploration Speech’, the space shuttles are to be retired this year following completion of the International Space Station, which itself is due to be completed this year.  The shuttles, flying since Columbia made its first flight in 1981, have been NASA’s longest operating spacecraft and are to be replaced by the more modest Orion space capsule around 2015.  There are five flights scheduled, all to the International Space Station.  The flights, designated STS-130 to 134 will carry the remaining modules and supplies to the station to get it ready for the post shuttle era, including the Node 3 module, the Alpha Magnetic Spectrometer, a disposable Multipurpose Logistics Module that will be left at the station, and the Mini Research Module 1.

The five year gap between the Shuttle and Orion will be filled by buying tickets on the Russian Soyuz spacecraft, in operation since the 1960’s. As stable as U.S./Russian relations may seem now, a NASA/Roscosmos agreement for buying tickets on Soyuz is limited; one by how many tickets the U.S. Congress will buy and two how stable U.S./Russian relations remain.  The hot button issue that could affect American access to space in the years prior to Orion’s first flight is Iran.  If the U.S. and Russia become bitterly divided on the issue, American astronauts may simply have no way to access the International Space Station until the new NASA ship or some commercial alternative is available.  This is a scenario that played out a few years ago when wording was discovered in the Iran Non-Proliferation Act that prohibited NASA from purchasing seats on the Soyuz as part of a Congressional response to Russia’s stance on Iran.  The wording was amended so that NASA could continue to buy seats, as at the time the shuttles were not regularly flying following the Columbia accident.

A shaky and fragile future is ahead for American spaceflight.

China Rising

Current plans on the board have China launching their first space station, Tiangong 1, by years end, followed by the Shenzhou 10 manned flight.  Shenzhou 1o will be China’s fourth manned flight and the establishment of a station would mark yet another milestone for the burgeoning space program.  China is currently building its manned program up to a future Moon landing, a fact that has been frequently overlooked and doesn’t recieve the attention it should from lawmakers in Washington.  However the secretive nature of China’s space program makes it hard to know for sure if Tiangong 1 will be flight ready by years end as many are speculating, but it will certainly capture the headlines and will hopefully be the message that Capitol Hill needs to hear to ensure that NASA receives the funding it needs for its Moon program and for trail blazing missions to worlds beyond.  The space programs of the United States and China are subconsciously in a space race and the time is rapidly approaching that the nations themselves will be in a new space race as well.

The U.S. likes to think that the Moon is won and theirs, but only if a return is made a permanent presence established.  Space conquests, like any on Earth, depend on concrete action, and not just some abandoned landers and flags from 40 years ago.

New Space

Earlier this month, SpaceShipTwo was finally revealed, 5 years after SpaceShipOne made its record breaking flights and captured the X-Prize.  The WhiteKnightTwo has already been put through several tests, but as a duo the test flights slated for them in the coming year will be a first.  Like SpaceShipOne, a series of test flights will commence with WK2 and SS2 taking off, flying around, and landing.  The first individual tests of SS2 will be glide tests, where it will get dropped from WK2 and glide back to a safe landing.  The glide tests will transition to high atmospheric flight tests, utilizing its engines for the first time before moving into test flights into suborbital space.  For the sake of safety, these tests will take as long as necessary.  Current projections have the first paying customers flying into space sometime in 2011, but that date could be pushed back if problems arise.

The milestone for 201o?  If SS2 reaches space, it is entirely likely that, much like 2004, 2010 will be only the second year in history where more manned flights into space were made by a privately built spaceship than by government built ships.  (In 2004, SpaceShipOne flew a total of three flights into space and Russia launched two Soyuz craft to the space station.)  A high goal to reach considering the robust Shuttle flight schedule discussed earlier.

The other milestone everyone will be eagerly watching and waiting for will be the test flights of SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rocket and Dragon spaceship.  As part of NASA’s Commercial Orbital Transportation Services contract, they are required to make three test flights of their vehicle before Dragon is utilized to resupply the International Space Station.  Their contract with NASA has 12 ISS resupply flights between 2010 and 2015.  Astronauts have already been trained to fly the ship and dock it once it comes within range of the station, the remaining question is when the flight will occur.  It is currently scheduled to lift off from Cape Canaveral in February, a date subject to change.

Solar System

The Japanese space probe Hayabusa will make its return to Earth in June, marking the end of a mission launched in 2003 to capture and return to Earth a sample from the asteroid Itokawa.  The status of the sample is unknown, but the craft became the first to ‘accidentally’ land on an asteroid and then to take off again.  The probe has been plagued with problems and is currently suffering problems with its ion engines but it is expected to deliver its sample capsule as planned.

NASA’s Deep Impact now (EPOXI) comet probe will  fly by Comet 103P/Hartley in October, marking the second comet it will have visited following a flyby and successful deployment of an impactor in 2005 on Comet 9p Tempel.  It’s original target was to be Comet Boethin, but when the comet could not be relocated Comet Hartley was selected.

NASA’s Mars Exploration Rovers Spirit and Opportunity continue to operate 0n the surface of Mars, but wheel failures and being stuck in a sand dune threaten to end Spirit’s mission.  Talk has started that come January there may be an attempt to revive the Phoenix lander at the Martian north pole as winter ends.  The lander has not been heard from since November 2008 and its health status is unknown.  Its electronics hardware was not designed for the frigid temperatures experienced in the Martian winter, an icy -195 degrees Farhenheit (Phoenix was only tested to -67 degrees Farhenheit).  Cassini continues to orbit Saturn and explore its Moons and New Horizons is continuing its uneventful trek towards an encounter with Pluto in 2015.  NASA’s Lunar Reconaissance Orbiter is continuing to explore and photograph the Moon in unprecedented detail in preparation for missions to come.

2010 looks to be an eventful year for space exploration, especially in the area of space tourism.  I feel 2010 will be looked at as a turning point in space exploration, perhaps more pivotal than 1981 or 1969, because for the first time, space will be well on its way to being accessible to all.  When SS2 begins flying for paying customers in 2011, we will have firmly established ourselves in the Space Age.

As the Augustine Committee readies itself to present their options for NASA’s course to President Obama, a new player in the race to the Moon is emerging to the public spotlight, though their plans have been around for some time.  Nigeria, along with South Africa, have robust plans for their space programs in the years ahead.  Most importantly though, beyond expanding satellite infrastructure, Nigeria has plans on the book to launch it’s first citizen into space by 2016 (one year after Orion would enter service) and plan to land humans on the Moon by 2030.  We can add them to a growing list of countries that could land humans on the Moon before the United States if NASA doesn’t recieve the adequate funding it needs.  That list, which includes countries with plans to land humans on the Moon by 2030 are China, Russia, Japan, and Nigeria.