I may have been in 5th grade at the time that George W. Bush was starting his first term, but I do remember an event in his first year as president that got overshadowed after 9/11 and had many, including my 5th grade teacher, talking about he possibility of a conflict with the Chinese. On 1 April 2001 near Hainan Island in China, a Chinese interceptor jet and a U.S. Navy surveillance plane collided and the Navy plane was forced to make an emergency landing in China. The crew members on board destroyed all sensitive equipment and data for nearly 15 minutes after landing before being detained until 11 April by the Chinese military. The nature of the event is still surrounded in speculation, but many view the Chinese response as a test towards George W. Bush and many feared during the event that it could have escalated into a military conflict between the U.S. and China. In their defense, China called the Navy flight a violation of their airspace in accordance with the UN Convention of the Laws of the Sea. Sound familiar?
Over the past week, the U.S. Navy surveillance ship the USNS Impeccable has been repeatedly harassed by Chinese ships including Bureau of Maritime Fisheries Patrol vessel, a State Oceanographic Administration patrol vessel, a Chinese Navy intelligence collection vessel, and two small Chinese-flagged trawlers. Mind you this is all occurred about 75 miles south of Hainan in the South China Sea. The Chinese are claiming that the ship was in violation of the Chinese special economic zone in the South China Sea and is thus in direct violation of international and Chinese laws.
Interesting coincidence? Perhaps, but it is nearly a tradition of America’s rivals to test new presidents as they enter into their first term. North Korea is prepping to test a missile, likely a Taepodong-2 akin to one tested a few years ago on the 4th of July, within the next week or so. Whatever their intentions are, they have put their military on high alert and have warned they are prepared for an all out war should their missile or satellite be shot down.
However President Obama responds to these crises, it is good to keep in mind these are largely tests on him to determine how he stands up under pressure on the international stage when faced with a crisis. I don’t really expect much to happen as a result of these events (knock on wood) beyond figuring out how Obama does handle a crisis and how China and North Korea will respond, but anything is possible. If Obama holds to his campaign promises of how to handle international diplomacy, everything should turn out just fine.