Zeitgeist Zephyr

Simply put, today’s announcement from NASA that methane detected in the atmosphere of Mars is either of geologic or biological origins.  These observations have been confirmed by orbiting spacecraft and from land and space based telescopes around Earth.  The only step left is confirmation from the surface not only that the methane is being produced but what exactly is causing it.  The Mars Science Laboratory which will be launched in 2011 will carry with it the capability to detect methane gas and its landing site should take this into consideration.

However, in doing a little bit of research, one of the sites of interest that the MSL team has already discounted is one of the sites now affiliated with increased concentrations of methane gas.  It would be my hope, and the hope of other Mars enthusiasts, that they take a look at the site again.  The site I’m referring to is Nili Fossae, and it perhaps holds one of the best possibilities for finding evidence for past or present microbial life on Mars.  NASA also mentioned that the much broader regions of Arabia Terra and Syrtis Major are also affiliated with these higher methane readings.

In taking a look at my nifty Mars wall map in my dorm room, I quickly realized that Arabia Terra and Syrtis Major are not only next to each other, but Nili Fossae is a smaller site on the eastern extent of Syrtis.  To those out there who might not be familiar with Martian geography, I’ve included a map of the region for clarity.  Arabia Terra and Syrtis Major straddle the equator, but are predominantly in the Northern Hemisphere of Mars.

The above image has (from left to right) Arabia Terra, Syrtis Major, and Nili Fossae to the north and eastern edge of Syrtis.   A full image of Mars puts their location into perspective.  Syrtis Major is the dark feature near the center of Mars and on the right-hand limb with Arabia Terra being the light colored region to the left.  The eastern extent of  Valles Marineris would be barely visible on the far left-hand limb and along the equator of the planet in this image. 

Why do I mention their location?  For one, everything significant we know about Martian geological activity is on the other side of the planet from these regions, which includes: the Valles Marineris, the largest canyon in the solar system, not just dwarfing the Grand Canyon but blowing it out of the water.  Valles Marineris is as long as the United States and so wide and deep in locations, its possible to not see the other side or the bottom.  The theory is that it was formed as a result of something similar to plate tectonics, and is therefore a massive fault-line.  Then there is the “Tharsis Bulge.”  The Tharsis region of Mars is very noteworthy for its apparent geologic activity, notably its four large volcanoes, all of which dwarf their Earth counterparts and one in particular, Olympus Mons, is the largest mountain in the solar system, being nearly four times higher from base to top than Mount Everest.

That being said, there is sparse physical evidence elsewhere on Mars based on orbital observations that is indicative of any other significant geologic activity, with the exception of a volcano a few thousand miles east of Syrtis Major, about the same distance as the Valles Marineris is west from Arabia Terra.  Aside from some volcanic debris in the region, it remains highly likely, but not impossible, that there is no geological activity in this region.  The only way to know for sure if these increased levels of methane are biological or geological is to go there.  My argument, based on geography here, is that it is very, very possible that the methane is being produce by microbes.  If it were a geologic process, over a decade of constant observation from remote sensing satellites orbiting the planet, we should have detected something by now.  The fact that these subtly higher levels of methane were only detected from orbit in 2003 and little has been observed since from Martian orbit supports my conclusion.   

Nili Fossae - the light colored pink areas indicate concentrations of clay in this image.  The blue is suspected to be volcanic material. 

Getting back to Nili Fossae, it’s peaked some scientific interest in recent years aside from being near the epicenter of the increased methane content in the atmosphere.  It boasts one of the largest concentrations of clay materials on the planet.  With Phoenix’s discovery of water ice below the surface in the northern polar region, it’s conceivable that the clay material could have enough water content to support small forms of life deep beneath the surface of Mars.  While MSL will not be equipped with the tools necessary to directly observe that life, it can confirm where the methane gas is coming from and determine if it is biologic in origin.  

Obviously, I’m leaning towards the exploration of this region for the prospects of finding life there.  But isn’t that what every Mars mission has been centered around?  The Viking landers in the 1970’s went out to directly look for life, Pathfinder was a proof of concept mission for later missions, Spirit and Opportunity (still chugging away after 5 years!) went in search of finding evidence of past or present water on Mars, the Phoenix lander was looking for evidence of subsurface water ice, and the failed Beagle 2 mission in 2003 would have dug into the surface looking for evidence of microbes.  Mars Science Lab has the same objective, continuing the search for life on the Red Planet.   

It would be foolish to disregard this region, especially with the new information that has become available.  If not the MSL mission, then perhaps Nili Fossae will be left for another future spacecraft to explore.  

It was inevitable, but I think that Matt Drudge has successfully made the debate over Global Climate Change a political viewpoint as rational as religion’s role in politics.  Readers of the Drudge Report will know that Drudge is definitely slanted towards the anti-global warming end of things and relishes in any opportunity to prove Al Gore wrong.  In doing so, he’s not just been feeding into the anti-global warming base of support, but has been doing it to such an extent that my only conclusion is that he now supports global cooling.

Today’s front page of the Drudge Report greeted readers with a claim that Earth is on the brink of an Ice Age.  In what will be my first argument against the political viewpoint of global cooling, I’ll argue that’s completely ludicrous and inconclusive.  The problem is, that with the coming of an Ice Age, that would only further justify the existence of global warming under some theories (remember the movie The Day After Tomorrow?)

At the same time, yeah its been a colder winter than we’ve seen in a decade and a half, but that really doesn’t mean much of anything.  This past year was cooler than average, true, but that stands in the face of nearly a full decade of warmer than average temperatures.  The fundamental problem with climatology is that since measurements have only been made since the late 1800s and computer programs that can at least semi-accurately model potential changes have become so in the last few decades, its not going to be possible for either side of the debate, global warming or cooling, to argue that their view is right until it has already come to pass and its too late. 

My view on it is to be on the safe side.  If climate change period is being caused by humans, which considering the destruction we’ve wrought on the plant the last century and half is not implausible, let’s start cutting back on greenhouse gas emissions and destruction of the forests.  In the process, we could ween ourselves off fossil fuels that will inevitably run out and find new methods of product production that don’t depend heavily on a base of natural resources that can take anywhere from a half to several centuries to replace.

Either way you look at it, its a net gain for humanity.  Greater sustainability and we get to keep Earth and a climate that has been so sustainable and good to us for the better part of the last 10,000 years.   

Updated 10:15 - India has just announced what appear to be plans to send a manned mission of their own to the Moon by 2020.  This only adds more impetus to a NASA-Pentagon link for the future superiority of the American space program. More details to come. 

I won’t say this too frequently, even given my pro-NewSpace (commercial spaceflight) mindset, but the current NASA administrator is a looney, and I’m specifically referring to his views on how we should be sending people back to the Moon.  NASA Admin Michael Griffin, as commented on back in December, is ardently opposed to the incoming Obama Administration’s space policies.  He’s become beligerent when approached by Obama staffers and transition team members when they’ve inquired about the costs involved in cancelling (his pet project) the Ares I booster.

It’s gotten to the point that when it was suggested a few days ago in a widely covered story that Obama might open up a connection between the Pentagon and NASA to hasten development of their new spaceships, a move that hasn’t been made since the Soviet Union launched Sputnik, Griffin still insisted that Ares I is the way to go.  It’s completely mind boggling.  NASA has just essentially been given a military priority which will hasten development of its new ships by at least a few years and would ensure independent American access to space beyond the retirement of the space shuttles next year, and yet Griffin still has a “go-it-alone” attitude.

The proposal goes something like this:  the Pentagon has a space budget of $22 billion compared to NASA’s total budget of $17 billion (and people still argue space isn’t militarized!).  Along with that, the Pentagon has been developing its own heavy lift launch vehicles, perhaps more extensively than NASA. The Atlas V (left photo) and Delta IV (right photo) launch vehicles are some of the most powerful heavy-lift boosters the United States operates, comparable in power to what NASA is expecting to get out of the Ares I booster.  Comparing this to the dawn of the space age, President Eisenhower wanted America’s first steps into space to be a civilian matter, and so let what was then NACA (NASA’s precursor) go forward with their own rocket technology development.  The military had the rockets necessary to launch a satellite into space as early as the mid 1950’s, but they were never given the authorization to do so, the logic being that the Soviet Union was not advanced enough and were still at best a decade behind us.  Once Sputnik proved that thinking wrong, NASA was given a military priority and launched its first satellite just 4 months later.

Today, the threat is China.  Their space program, like those of the US and USSR from the 1950’s through the 1970’s, is fueled with military dollars and is a national defense and pride issue, not just a national scientific endeavor.  That’s why from one mission to the next they have been able to make leaps and bounds in terms of their space capabilities.  At the current rate that NASA is going, it is estimated that Chinese taikonauts could be walking on the Moon before we do. Not that this is anything to worry about, I doubt that China will be able to conquer the Moon in the few years it would take us to catch up, but that’s beside the point.

There are rockets existing that with little modification could easily launch manned crews into orbit.  The Atlas V and Delta IV rockets have been brought up by the Obama transition team, and these are more than viable solutions.  Michael Griffin however insists that the non-existent Ares I booster will be safer and more reliable, compared to the Atlas and Delta rockets which have a proven safety record and could be fast tracked for human launch capabilities by 2013 instead of 2015 with the Ares I rocket.  That’s not to mention the potential for using the Falcon 9 heavy lift rocket currently being assembled at Cape Canaveral for its first launch early this year.  The point is, Mr. Griffin is caught up in his own legacy for the space program, which he perceives as being the Ares I and V boosters and the Orion spacecraft.  

Has he forgotten the advances made since he started overseeing the agency?  Two Mars rovers that after five years are still chugging away and churning out scientific data, far exceeding their initial three month missions.  Another Mars mission successfully found water ice on Mars before succumbing to the extreme cold brought on by a Martian winter, still exceeding its three month mission.  The Cassini-Huygens mission became the first to orbit Saturn and send a probe to the surface of its  moon Titan while at the same time uncovering a potentially new environment for life in our solar system on the icy moon Enceladus.  In terms of human spaceflight, he oversaw the return to flight of the space shuttles and the International Space Station has resumed construction and is set to be completed with only minor changes from its original design.  His legacy is already quite successful and if he wants to stay on board at NASA during the Obama administration and add to an already “stellar” career there, he needs to start playing pragmatically and realistically to what’s going to be the most feasible and effective solution for getting Americans to the Moon and beyond.  

Otherwise, he needs to get out of town, and will, when his term expires on January 20.