First of all, if you’re still unsure of exactly what happened in Mumbai, India last week, I would recommend looking at this analysis of the crisis courtesy of The Long War Journal . (Thank you to Jaded Sage, which first posted this on his blog a few days ago.)
The death toll from the attacks look to potentially reach to 300, however it could have been much worse. According to sources, the terrorists planned on killing 5,000 people. The attackers appear to be tied to terrorist groups based out of India’s neighbor, Pakistan. This has since created massive amounts of tension between the nuclear-armed states and while everything is still in a state of limbo in the aftermath of the attacks, the response from India has the potential to go in two directions, one of which is engaging in attacks against terrorists based out of Pakistan, which could lead to undesirable consequences for relations between the two countries.
It has been suggested by some in India that immediate actions attune to the U.S. response after 9/11 is necessary in Pakistan. It doesn’t take much reading of Indian media resources to realize very quickly that a lot of animosity exists towards their neighbors to the west. These feelings aren’t necessarily new, they’ve just become inflamed as a result of the attacks. Pakistan broke off from British India in 1947 and was carved out of two Muslim-majority regions. The primary reason was that disputes were commonplace between the Hindu and Muslim religious groups and their followers. The result was a mass migration of Hindus from Pakistan to India and Muslims from India to Pakistan. This then lead to the First Kashmir War in 1948 as both countries fought over who would control the Muslim-majority region. While India maintains control of the region, it is still a sticking point for both countries and is theorized to be the most likely trigger to a nuclear war between the two countries, still the most volatile nuclear situation in the world.
The terror attacks in Mumbai this past week will no doubt only add fuel to this fire. While I hope and pray that the two countries can work things out peacefully and that India, through cooperation with Pakistan, can find those responsible for the attacks in an equally responsible manner. Their relations are currently strained, but during the interim time period now before India makes any serious response to the attacks, steps should be taken by both countries to ensure that a rebel group of terrorists doesn’t cause an irreparable rift in relations that could lead to an all-out war between the two countries.
