Well, here we go again. It looks like a series of recent events in South America could threaten to draw the United States into yet another international issue, upholding our self-stated obligation to ‘mediate’ affairs in the Western Hemisphere. Even though I do firmly believe in the United States and that it should maintain its ability to settle disputes before they get violent, it would be a catastrophe if we chose to get involved in a war in South America at this period in time. Here’s why.
The dispute started over the weekend when Colombia launched a series of raids into the neighboring country of Ecuador. Venezuela, the third largest supplier of oil to the United States and a self acclaimed enemy, is coming to Ecuador’s rescue. Venezuelan president Hugo Chavez has ordered the evacuation and shut down of the Venezuelan embassy in Bogota, Colombia. He has also ordered troops to be massed on the frontier region between Venezuela and Columbia and to be prepared should a military strike be ordered.
Any military action on the part of the United States would further strain our army. That’s the reason why not to get involved. If we weren’t in a war that was essentially over an imagined threat in Iraq, I might be more willing to accept military action in this dispute-within reason. Remember, Venezuela (the nation we would likely fight against), might be our enemy, but they are also a hand that feeds us (oil.)
This has the potential to become yet another issue to debate in the upcoming election, but more importantly if it does lead to war, this would be yet another stress that the current administration would have to worry about. Ultimately, a war in South America would ruin what little there is left to salvage of President Bush’s image.
This does bring up another point that I’ve been thinking about over the past couple of days, and that is if President Bush will ever be able to regain a positive image in the eyes of history. It happened to Harry Truman, why can’t it happen for Bush? I suspect it won’t.
Truman made some tough decisions during his presidency; dropping the atomic bombs, entering into a conflict with North Korea that has lasted to this day, and effectively establishing the United State’s strategy for the whole of the Cold War. His image while president was grim. Much like Bush, he was fighting a war that appeared to have no end in sight (still the case with 30,000 troops massed at the 38th Parallel today.) However, he was also fighting another war, one that brought the United States to the ranks of world superpower. Europe was effectively rebuilt on his watch and with U.S. money and an effective organization of nations, the United Nations, was established to mediate world events and politics. Up through the Clinton administration, these gains that Truman made could still be effectively seen.
When Bush entered office, the United States was the most powerful nation in the history of the world: politically, militarily, and economically. When he leaves office, he leaves the U.S. with a tarnished image as an effective player on the world stage. He bypassed the UN to march off to a war that had no basis in reality, his policies and methods of dealing with other nations has affected America’s credibility on the political front. The economy is in the worst shape it’s been in in decades. I wish that I could say that he has improved our military, since that is where all our money is going, but I can’t even say that. Recent reports and events indicate that our military is so strained, America could not effectively handle a disaster here at home, because nearly all available resources are in Iraq. Cue Katrina and Greensburg.
My point? It does remain highly unlikely that a U.S. involved war will happen. I still like to think that Bush is smarter than that. America has pledged that it will mediate events in the Western Hemisphere. That’s fine. It should be nothing more than that. A war involving one of our geographically closest enemies (Venezuela) is a BAD idea. Our army can’t handle anything more than a limited involvement as it is; it isn’t worth it.
*As I’ve typed this, news broke that Bush is backing Colombia. He is requesting that the Senate approve a free trade agreement with Colombia.